Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 93646.664653 98733.631477 103815.404270 109269.454017 114953.811825 120700.035464 126944.297774
2025-06-01 85968.318755 93816.228247 101870.871658 110744.886919 120236.306471 130072.861210 141026.748032
2025-06-08 79347.289834 89013.283390 99149.584394 110549.594668 122991.215502 136134.992910 151047.620063
2025-06-15 75457.932521 86609.241654 98512.520469 112127.443783 127231.432142 143435.927369 162097.175430
2025-06-22 71860.525778 84163.734862 97503.177784 112987.029964 130409.627068 149351.544636 171444.982616
2025-06-29 68350.627133 81545.613548 96056.794667 113126.619595 132580.189809 153982.685808 179230.398582
2025-07-06 65233.588547 79169.119702 94697.014718 113187.270518 134505.922818 158214.049925 186468.781351
2025-07-13 63570.967054 78343.731882 94998.660990 115047.516944 138402.010220 164621.287914 196149.708012
2025-07-20 61928.296610 77434.343654 95110.317046 116606.200894 141887.797201 170521.536436 205239.875311
2025-07-27 60075.370908 76176.603760 94727.425594 117508.532641 144548.093854 175430.030124 213169.095708
2025-08-03 57925.174034 74465.764044 93722.197595 117595.677452 146184.403081 179100.324208 219629.644155
2025-08-10 56101.039489 73070.665326 93022.981163 117982.663086 148123.104432 183089.580657 226448.667707
2025-08-17 54208.723269 71547.578320 92138.689760 118131.474415 149783.389445 186782.027042 232984.135127
2025-08-24 53027.464871 70859.365336 92233.880111 119442.760699 152832.772942 192135.627114 241532.122793
2025-08-31 51131.980355 69208.471136 91085.666555 119176.073773 153922.607917 195114.332188 247225.796145
2025-09-07 50297.188184 68860.919367 91520.752691 120839.448057 157360.143936 200926.874834 256361.062297
2025-09-14 49157.679639 68079.587230 91375.896547 121749.719028 159849.900146 205584.528129 264110.212233
2025-09-21 47728.182341 66875.113352 90654.130674 121897.327145 161363.812742 209034.487628 270386.234037
2025-09-28 46337.285783 65674.943298 89896.356475 121961.607227 162744.140963 212303.282684 276438.406983
2025-10-05 45870.713679 65667.702819 90649.216554 123937.855248 166527.411838 218553.329204 286201.375068
2025-10-12 45291.746732 65487.568235 91160.831083 125593.479683 169904.380174 224311.795919 295387.226447
2025-10-19 44444.898135 64920.598624 91146.091047 126551.819552 172385.311436 228955.476889 303205.033446
2025-10-26 43275.397530 63883.765692 90485.554520 126644.368828 173738.685692 232176.015201 309247.146423